La capacità di Trump di allentare le sanzioni contro la Russia è più limitata di quella dell'Europa.
In recent discussions, the possibility of alleviating sanctions against Russia has been a topic of interest. Here are some potential steps that could be taken and their potential implications.
1. Restoring Frozen Assets
The restoration of frozen assets, estimated at around $5 billion in the U.S. and approximately $230 billion in Europe, could be a move that President Trump could potentially make without Congress. However, such a move could be noticed by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
2. Lending to Russian Banks
Big U.S. banks may be reluctant to lend large sums without European counterparts doing the same. Historically, European banks have led the way in Russia and have the expertise and risk appetite. Europe has the ability to readmit Russian banks to the SWIFT global payments network, but has expressed intentions to maintain pressure on Russia until Moscow ends the war in Ukraine.
3. Easing Treasury Department Sanctions
The biggest step Trump could take would be to ease Treasury Department sanctions restricting U.S. oilfield service companies from working in Russia. This could potentially enable Russia to boost oil and gas production.
4. Allowing U.S. Lending to Russian Banks and Corporations
Among Trump's options to lift sanctions are releasing seized Russian assets, reopening U.S. lending to Russian banks and corporations, and allowing U.S. oil services companies to return to Russia's oil and gas fields. The process of releasing these assets could be done in secret through licenses from the Treasury Department.
5. Re-entering Russia's Oil and Gas Projects
U.S. and Russian officials have discussed the possibility of Exxon Mobil re-entering Russia's Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project. This could potentially boost Russia's oil and gas production and revenue.
6. Revenues from Oil and Gas
Oil and gas revenue accounts for about a quarter of Russia's total federal budget proceeds. Revenues from the oil and gas sector have fallen sharply, causing financial strain for Russia amid higher spending since launching its military campaign in Ukraine.
7. Seaborne Oil Exports
Reopening Europe's market for Russian seaborne oil could allow Russia to reduce shipping costs and potentially increase revenue. Europe was the destination for nearly half of Russia's crude and petroleum product exports before the invasion of Ukraine.
8. Peace Talks and Sanctions
U.S. President Donald Trump could potentially lift some sanctions on Russia if peace talks with Ukraine are successful. However, Europe has the ability to significantly ease Russia's cash crunch, but has expressed intentions to maintain pressure on Russia until Moscow ends the war in Ukraine.
It's important to note that these potential steps are still under discussion and their implementation could depend on various factors, including the progress of peace talks and the response from both the U.S. and European governments.
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